New Yorkers in particular are showing a high interest in moving to Denver
By Aldo Svaldi | asvaldi@denverpost.com | The Denver Post | April 9, 2021 at 6:00 a.m.
Tenants left more expensive urban apartment markets, including Denver, during the pandemic, but that trend is showing signs of reversing sooner and faster than expected, according to statistics gathered by Apartment List.
“It does appear that the pandemic caused a shift in renter preferences leading to lower demand for expensive urban markets, but prices have reacted accordingly, and these lower prices are effectively spurring demand such that expensive urban markets are not hollowing out,” said Chris Salviati, a housing economist with the apartment search engine.
Apartment rents within Denver proper fell 6.7% between March 2020 and January 2021, reflecting lower demand after more crowded areas fell out of favor. But in the first three months of the year, Denver apartment rents have rebounded 2.2%, although the year-over-year change is still down 4.6%, Salviati said.
Heading into the pandemic, Denver’s vacancy rate stood at 7.5%, peaked at 8.9% in May and held at a high 8% through September. But vacancies began trending lower and the rate is now at 6.7%, below where it was before the pandemic started, he said.
A similar pattern is happening in even harder hit cities like San Francisco, where rents jumped 3.4% month-over-month in March, the biggest increase measured since Apartment List began tracking that market in early 2017.
“The rebound that we’ve seen in Denver over the past couple of months is mirrored in all of the expensive markets where rents have fallen sharply over the past year,” Salviati said.
The Cleveland Federal Reserve found that Denver was among cities that didn’t necessarily see urban residents leave but rather fewer people move into its urban areas.
A separate migration study of searches made on Apartment List also supports the idea of an urban rebound. The share of “out-of-town” searches actually decreased during the pandemic, with urban residents were more likely to hunt for nearby alternatives rather than ones in a distant city. Returning to the urban core should be easier if and when those tenants are ready.
Nearly three in 10 of the searches coming from Denver’s suburbs are within Denver city limits, a higher ratio than seen before the pandemic. Denver is also seeing more interest from residents living in other big cities. They accounted for about 43.6% of searches in the first quarter, up from 41.3% a year ago.
The most popular locations searched for those looking to leave Denver were Boulder, Colorado Springs and Fort Collins. In the other direction, New York, Boulder and Colorado Springs were the top three sources of inbound searches into metro Denver.
While the last two aren’t a surprise, New Yorkers alone account for one out of 21 apartment searches in Denver this year.
Not all of those searching will come. But in the post-pandemic world, Denverites may need to brace for more newcomers asking where they can find a plain slice or a hero or the nearest bodega.
